The 18 parties alliance in general and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) in particular would probably have to take a tough decision in coming days whether to go ahead in election under the government led by the Awwami League (AL). The symptoms and indicators coming from up and down the country and the voting patterns of the last few elections suggest that if the next election is held under a non-party caretaker government, the 18 parties’ alliance can easily get 2-3 majorities. They are even likely to get 3-4 majorities.
But what will happen if the election is held under the current government. As usual, the AL will try to do everything possible to come back to power. If it is not possible, they will try to do everything to block 18 parties alliance from coming into power. Sometimes mechanism does not work if mass people resist or the situation goes out of control.
Thus, if it is even failed, they will make sure that the 18 parties’ alliance comes to power with a simple majority or with narrow margin. If that is so, the 18 parties’ alliance cannot do anything constitutionally. They will have to run the government under the mechanism and design set by the AL.
The AL is a strong grassroots level party. If they are defeated, they can regroup easily and come back probably within a year to direct agitational/violent movement against the government!
Therefore, the BNP will have to lead in taking a tough decision soon. There will be a heavy price for wrong decision. Worth remembering that taking a decision is probably easy but making undone of the consequence of the wrong decision is impossible.
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